BRYAN, Texas (KBTX) - Tropical Storm Beta attempted to show signs of strengthening Sunday after developing intense thunderstorms near the center of circulation. As it continues to battle dry air, that storm activity has settled heading into the evening hours. After a sunny start to Sunday, far-reaching overcast skies and light rain from Beta has reached the Brazos Valley.
4pm Sunday Update
As of the 4pm advisory from the National Hurricane Center, Beta’s intensity remains steady. Battling dry air and stronger upper-level winds, not much has changed through the day, even though bigger storms could be seen on satellite and from radar located in Leauge City, Texas. As of the hour, here are the latest observations for Tropical Storm Beta:
- Location: 120 miles south-southeast of Galveston, Texas, 155 miles east-southeast of Port O’Conner, Texas
- Maximum Sustained Wind: 60mph
- Extent of Tropical-Storm-Force Wind: 195 miles
- Movement: West-northwest at 6 mph
- Minimum Pressure: 996 mb
By radar trends, it seemed like Beta was forming an eye signature through the early afternoon of Sunday. A burst of bigger storms helped to create this look but has since waned. Recent data from Hurricane Hunters showed the center of circulation was displaced from this signature and that the intensity of Beta remains unchanged from earlier in the day.
The latest update to the forecast track for Tropical Storm Beta advances the center of the storm a bit faster than previous updates. It is now expected to make landfall, relatively unchanged, near Matagorda Bay early Monday afternoon. By Tuesday, high pressure over the Southeastern United States will help turn Beta to the east-northeast. The National Hurricane Center has also moved the projected path of Beta’s center a bit further north, bringing it just south of Austin and Waller Counties as a weak tropical storm through the day Tuesday.
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH remains in effect for Austin, Waller, and Montgomery Counties, but there are NO active Tropical Storm Warnings in the Brazos Valley.
Due to the slight shift to the north, parts of the south and southeastern Brazos Valley now fall in the National Hurricane Center’s possible tropical-storm-force (39mph+) wind forecast radii Monday morning through Tuesday midday. At this moment, the odds for tropical-storm-force wind is about 50% in those areas, likely to occur in gust form. Elsewhere in the Brazos Valley, breezy-to-gusty wind in excess of 25 to 30mph will be possible both Monday and Tuesday.
The rainfall forecast for the area remains tricky, but generally, passing rain is expected through Tuesday or early Wednesday. A few bands of rain could produce tropical downpours and squally wind between 30 and 40mph. Rainfall estimates as high as 1″ - 2″ exist for the area, but it may be more realistic that only 1/2″ to 1″ falls for much of the area through mid-week. While close to this tropical system, the higher rainfall is expected to the east and south of the center. The Brazos Valley is on that side of the system Monday before transitioning to the north side Tuesday afternoon.
Next full forecast from the National Hurricane Center arrives by 10pm.
1pm Sunday Update
As of the 1pm advisory from the National Hurricane Center, Beta has changed little. Hurricane Hunter and radar data indicated that the tropical storm has redeveloped a little farther to the west. Radar image out of Houston shows that rain may be wrapping all the way around the center for the first time. If the trend continues, that may indicate that Beta is attempting to strengthen, overcoming stronger upper-level wind and dry air.
- Location: 140 miles southeast of Galveston, Texas
- Maximum Sustained Wind: 60mph
- Extent of Tropical-Storm-Force Wind: 195 miles (mainly northeast of center)
- Movement: West-northwest at 5 mph
- Minimum Pressure: 996 mb
Sunshine is quickly transitioning to cloud cover in the Brazos Valley. Overcast is pulling the curtain over blue skies from southeast to northwest. Thick cloud cover is generally expected to linger over the area through late Wednesday.
Light showers have moved into parts of Montgomery and San Jacinto Counties this afternoon. As moisture rebounds in the Brazos Valley, light, passing rain will become possible through the evening and overnight hours.
As of the 10am advisory, here is the latest for Tropical Storm Beta:
- Location: 180 miles southeast of Galveston, Texas
- Maximum Sustained Wind: 60mph
- Extent of Tropical-Storm-Force Wind: 195 miles (mainly northeast of center)
- Movement: West-northwest at 3 mph
- Minimum Pressure: 996 mb
Beta is fighting against dry air -- north and west of the center -- and fairly strong upper-level wind blowing across the storm to the northeast. That wind is expected to be enough to keep Beta from strengthening but not enough to weaken or dissipate it before making landfall near Matagorda Bay early Tuesday morning. Once inland, this system is expected to weaken, but proximity to the coast will continue a heavy rain and flood concern along and south of I-10.
Tropical storm conditions are already impacting parts of the Upper Texas and Lousiana Coast Sunday morning. Gusts over 30mph have been noted from Galvestion to Lake Charles. Those winds are expected to spread westward toward more of the Texas Coast later Sunday and Monday.
Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect from Port Aransas, Texas to Morgan City, Louisiana.
Below: The yellow circle is the extent that tropical-storm-force wind is forecast to encompass as Beta arrives and then moves inland. Due to the upper-level wind pattern, most of that wind is expected to remain to the northeast of the center. Once inland, that wind field will shrink as Beta slowly weakens. As of now, the odds for tropical-storm-force wind are LOW for the Brazos Valley’s 16 county area. Higher gusts 39mph or higher are anticipated to remain just south of the area.
WHAT DOES THIS MEAN FOR THE BRAZOS VALLEY:
Overall, major impacts to the Brazos Valley should be minimal. Breezy-to-gusty wind and scattered rain are in the forecast locally from Sunday through Wednesday. Here is a breakdown of the coming days:
- SUNDAY: A sunny and comfortable start slowly starts to become muddled as cloud cover spreads in from the south. Overall rain chance is low, but not ruled out. Passing, light showers may drift by for some after 3pm. Scattered, passing rain at times is anticipated through the overnight hours. Wind gusts 20-25mph are expected.
- MONDAY: Rain is expected to sweep through the Brazos Valley at times. While not a washout, heavier bands could produce passing, tropical downpours. While the wind is expected to be gusty at times -- 25-35mph -- these bands could produce squally rain with gusts upwards of 40mph. Rainfall totals could amount between 1/2″ and 1″.
- TUESDAY: Beta is expected to make landfall near or just east of Matagorda Bay by sunrise. Wind gusts closer to 30-35mph could be possible through the morning, relaxing to 20-25mph by the afternoon. Rain and thunderstorms are expected at times, but a weakening Beta could keep most of that rain confined to the south and eastern Brazos Valley. An additional 1″ of rain or more is possible for parts of the area, but not all.
Next complete forecast update from the National Hurricane Center regarding Beta arrives by 4 pm Sunday.
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Tropical Storm Beta moving a little faster toward Texas; light rain begins in the Brazos Valley - KBTX
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